For a while now, most NJ lottery games have offered an add-on feature; a chance to win more provided you pay an extra dollar. Pick 3, Pick 4, and the recently ruined Jersey Cash 5 all have Instant Match, while the two multi-state mega jackpot games have their respective multipliers. Now, New Jersey's original jackpot game, Pick-6 Lotto, has a multiplier too. It's very similar to the Xtra feature in Florida's Lotto; in fact, New Jersey's version is also called Xtra. Pay an extra dollar, and you can multiply non-jackpot prizes between 2 and 5 times; and also win $2 cash by matching 2 numbers (something you can't do in the $1 version of Pick-6, and you still can't do in Jersey Cash 5).
I'm not sure if I can recommend this, though. As of yet, there have been no indications about the odds of a particular multiplier coming up. Maybe once I see the drawing, I could find out. My guess is that there's an equal chance of any multiplier coming up, but there's no guarantee. Tennessee's ill-fated Lotto Plus had a multiplier heavily weighted towards the lowest factor, 2x. This created a situation where adding the extra dollar would actually raise the house edge, from 50% for the $1 base game, to about 58% (IIRC) once you added the Plus feature. Hopefully, New Jersey hasn't done this and has created an equitable multiplier scheme. Multipliers are good bets if they're done right.
Showing posts with label new. Show all posts
Showing posts with label new. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Monday, December 8, 2014
Powerball changing again...
Not much to say at this point in time, as usual lottery officials are tight-lipped even amongst themselves. There are a few things I can say for sure. Florida has already begun drawing down advance play in preparation for an April 12th launch date. As for the game itself: according the New Hampshire lottery's meeting minutes from October, the odds of winning will be getting longer (as if there was any doubt). The odds will go to about 1 in 285 million. That should translate to 66 white balls and 32 Powerballs in the new matrix, at least my calculations say so. Also, and I may have read the meeting minutes wrong, but it sounds like the multiplier feature will now be included in the base Powerball game: any prize below the 3rd tier (4 white + 1 PB) will be subject to the multiplier at no additional charge. A different $1 add-on will be available, no word on what that might be.
A lot is still uncertain, and what I said above might change between now and next Spring. One concern I have regards the price. It seems unlikely with the increased matrix, but I can't say for sure if the base price will remain $2. It probably will, but anything's possible. Plus, there are a lot of variables regarding the now-integrated PowerPlay, how the new $1 add-on will work, and what changes will be made to the prize levels. Could there be another change to the jackpot annuity structure? After all, it's just there at this point to inflate the advertised prize; it's become the lottery version of the 9/10ths of cent on gas prices. I digress, though; we'll all just have to stay tuned!
A lot is still uncertain, and what I said above might change between now and next Spring. One concern I have regards the price. It seems unlikely with the increased matrix, but I can't say for sure if the base price will remain $2. It probably will, but anything's possible. Plus, there are a lot of variables regarding the now-integrated PowerPlay, how the new $1 add-on will work, and what changes will be made to the prize levels. Could there be another change to the jackpot annuity structure? After all, it's just there at this point to inflate the advertised prize; it's become the lottery version of the 9/10ths of cent on gas prices. I digress, though; we'll all just have to stay tuned!
Friday, July 26, 2013
New England Lucky For Life changes. Everybody loves a (near) winner.
It been a little more than a year since Lucky For Life launched, the realization of a decades-long push for a New England-wide lottery game (beginning with talks of pushing Tri-State Megabucks into CT, MA, and RI in the 80's). It seems to be reasonably popular, I saw a few LfL tickets being bought when I was in Providence a while back; and there's already plans for a second New England game (possibly a merger of Tri-State Megabucks, Mass. Megabucks, and CT Lotto).
In the meantime, changes are afoot for the young game, with those changes coming on line September 17th. The game will have three more balls in the white ball field, and twenty-two more lucky balls; giving the game 43 numbers in each field. As a result, the game is about to get harder to win; overall odds being increased modestly to about 1 in 8, but top prize odds going up almost threefold to about 1 in 41 million (up from about 1 in 14 mil).
What are these changes for? Bigger lower tier prizes? Maybe $1,000,000/year for life? Odds like this could support such a prize.
No, that'd be too obvious. All of these extra numbers are being added for big increases to the second prize. That's right, not the lower tier prizes, not the jackpot, the second prize. It will go up from $25,000 cash, to $25,000 cash per year for life. A few other prizes are getting modest increases to compensate for the longer odds (new prize amounts are underlined):
Yeah, that second prize is getting a big boost; but very few other prizes are going up that much. The top prize and four of the bottom five prizes aren't going up at all. The prize for matching just the Lucky Ball is staying pat at $4, despite being twice as hard to win; and as I mentioned before winning the grand-a-day-for-life is getting almost three times harder to win. You can see just how much emphasis is being put on this new runner-up prize by comparing the percentages of sales that go towards each prize:
If you're not good with numbers, let me break that down. Nearly half of the prize pool (60% of sales) is going to the second prize. Second prizes have usually been the most neglected when it comes to dividing the take. Powerball turned that around last year by putting almost a fifth of the prize pool into the $1,000,000 second prize. That may not be as much of the pool as the jackpot gets, but it's way more than the other prizes get. LfL has now decided that even the top prize should take a back seat to the second prize; and about that prize, $25,000 per year is not that much money, especially after Uncle Sam gets his cut. They sacrificed every other prize category so they could do this. Granted, you can get a lump-sum in this version which you couldn't before; but that's doesn't help much because despite increased odds, the other prizes are pretty much staying where they are. Solid A game, about to go down a whole letter grade. I give this new LfL is a B-.
In the meantime, changes are afoot for the young game, with those changes coming on line September 17th. The game will have three more balls in the white ball field, and twenty-two more lucky balls; giving the game 43 numbers in each field. As a result, the game is about to get harder to win; overall odds being increased modestly to about 1 in 8, but top prize odds going up almost threefold to about 1 in 41 million (up from about 1 in 14 mil).
What are these changes for? Bigger lower tier prizes? Maybe $1,000,000/year for life? Odds like this could support such a prize.
No, that'd be too obvious. All of these extra numbers are being added for big increases to the second prize. That's right, not the lower tier prizes, not the jackpot, the second prize. It will go up from $25,000 cash, to $25,000 cash per year for life. A few other prizes are getting modest increases to compensate for the longer odds (new prize amounts are underlined):
| Match | Prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5+1 | $7,000/week/life | 1:41,391,714 |
| Match 5+0 | $25,000/year/life | 1:985,517 |
| Match 4+1 | $3,000 (from $2K) | 1:217,851.13 |
| Match 4+0 | $150 (from $100) | 1:5,186.93 |
| Match 3+1 | $100 (up from $50) | 1:5,887.87 |
| Match 3+0 | $10 | 1:140.19 |
| Match 2+1 | $20 (up from $15) | 1:490.66 |
| Match 2+0 | $2 | 1:11.68 |
| Match 1+1 | $5 | 1:112.15 |
| Match 0+1 | $4 | 1:82.46 |
Yeah, that second prize is getting a big boost; but very few other prizes are going up that much. The top prize and four of the bottom five prizes aren't going up at all. The prize for matching just the Lucky Ball is staying pat at $4, despite being twice as hard to win; and as I mentioned before winning the grand-a-day-for-life is getting almost three times harder to win. You can see just how much emphasis is being put on this new runner-up prize by comparing the percentages of sales that go towards each prize:
| Prize Level | Old | New |
|---|---|---|
| Match 5+1 | 27.81% | 10.27% |
| Match 5+0 | 1.81% | 27.90% |
| Match 4+1 | 1.27% | 0.69% |
| Match 4+0 | 1.27% | 1.45% |
| Match 3+1 | 1.08% | 0.85% |
| Match 3+0 | 4.31% | 3.57% |
| Match 2+1 | 3.55% | 2.04% |
| Match 2+0 | 9.47% | 8.56% |
| Match 1+1 | 4.74% | 2.23% |
| Match 0+1 | 4.7% | 2.43% |
If you're not good with numbers, let me break that down. Nearly half of the prize pool (60% of sales) is going to the second prize. Second prizes have usually been the most neglected when it comes to dividing the take. Powerball turned that around last year by putting almost a fifth of the prize pool into the $1,000,000 second prize. That may not be as much of the pool as the jackpot gets, but it's way more than the other prizes get. LfL has now decided that even the top prize should take a back seat to the second prize; and about that prize, $25,000 per year is not that much money, especially after Uncle Sam gets his cut. They sacrificed every other prize category so they could do this. Granted, you can get a lump-sum in this version which you couldn't before; but that's doesn't help much because despite increased odds, the other prizes are pretty much staying where they are. Solid A game, about to go down a whole letter grade. I give this new LfL is a B-.
Monday, September 10, 2012
"New" Game in Illinois
It's been almost a quarter century since the Illinois Lottery has introduced a new game. Granted, Lotto has been changed a few times since then. Little Lotto's gameplay has not only changed, but so has it's name (beginning as Cash 5, and now called Lucky Day Lotto). But it hasn't been since 1988, when the afforementioned Cash 5/et al game was launched, that Illinois has introduced an entirely new game. That changed Sunday with the introduction of My3. To play, one must select a three-digit number between 000 and 999. If that sounds familiar, that's because they didn't actually introduce a actual new game, they just added another Pick 3! Granted, it's a sort of "beginner's" version of Pick 3, but why did they have to create a whole new product? They could have just as easily made "beginner's" play slips for Pick 3, and added a new play option to provide multiple prize levels. By the way, I completely forgot about the multiple prize levels in My3.
Apparently they can call this a "new" game because there are multiple prize levels: matching all 3 in exact order wins $200 on a $1 play, matching any 2 in order wins $4. If you match all 3 in a jumbled order, you win $40; unless your number has repeating digits, then you win $100. But that begs the question: what happens if one picks all of one digit (i.e. 000, 777)? Does the player win both the exact and repeating prize, or just the exact order prize?
If you're confused, that just goes to show what a failure of marketing this is. If this was added as a new "ez-win" option to Pick 3, I'd give it a solid B+. But a whole new product? I guess Northstar (the private firm running the lottery) had that idea of adding this to Pick 3, and then they realized "Hey, we haven't introduced a new game since 1988; let's just make this it's own game." There was a lot of speculation on Lottery Post that the new game would be 5-digit game like PA's Quinto. And as bad as that game would have been, it still would have made more sense to add than this: what essentially amounts to another Pick 3. Pointless.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
